Daniel Jones is cashing in on his nice play

The Colts’ offense isn’t simply the NFL’s greatest — it’s on a historic tempo, averaging extra factors per drive than any staff since 2000.

Whereas the additions of Tyler Warren and a completely wholesome Jonathan Taylor have made an enormous distinction, the most important cause for the Colts’ offensive success has been Daniel Jones and his exceptional effectivity.

Jones is presently taking part in on a one-year, $14 million deal. The query now’s: what’s going to the Colts need to pay him after the season if he maintains this stage of play?

To interrupt down a possible contract, three elements have to be analyzed:

By all accounts, Daniel Jones has been a prime 8 quarterback within the NFL this season. He ranks:

He has been tremendously environment friendly and clear along with his passes and the Colts have the very best offense within the NFL.

It’s not tough to measure Daniel Jones’ influence on the Colts. Final season, with Joe Flacco and Anthony Richardson splitting begins, Indianapolis averaged 22 factors per recreation. By way of seven video games this 12 months, they’re averaging 33. The addition of Tyler Warren has actually helped, but it surely’s clear that Jones has been the driving power behind the offense’s 50% scoring leap. The final time the Colts had a quarterback rank within the prime 10 throughout main passing classes was 2018 — Andrew Luck’s closing full season.

Jones and Shane Steichen have developed a transparent chemistry. The offense is constructed round Jones’ strengths — play motion, fast rhythm, and timing — and he’s executing it flawlessly. His consistency has additionally opened up the run recreation, permitting Jonathan Taylor to return to MVP-caliber type behind a much more balanced assault.

A great comparability is perhaps Baker Mayfield’s breakout 12 months in Tampa Bay. Mayfield performed at a excessive stage, took a team-friendly deal, and gave the Buccaneers roster flexibility. If Jones have been to do the identical — which, adjusted for inflation, can be roughly three years and $40 million per season — he’d be celebrated in Indianapolis. It’s not unattainable, but it surely’s uncommon in right this moment’s NFL, the place most quarterbacks push for top-of-market offers.

Whereas many quarterback contracts haven’t lived as much as expectations, it’s value noting that when the gamers listed beneath signed their offers, they have been acting at a stage corresponding to Daniel Jones.

The three most related long-term contract comparisons for Jones’ subsequent contract are:

Some might also deliver up Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold, although Darnold’s scenario is much much less relevant. Darnold was successfully changed in Minnesota by J.J. McCarthy, signed elsewhere on a short-term cope with an opt-out after two seasons, and was coming off a tough end that deflated his worth.

Mayfield, nonetheless, is a fairer comp. He produced one sturdy season in Tampa Bay — albeit not fairly at Jones’ stage — and took a team-friendly contract to remain. Adjusted for right this moment’s market, that sort of deal would equate to roughly three years at $40 million per season, a discount by present requirements. If Jones have been keen to signal one thing comparable, he’d be hailed as a hero in Indianapolis. Nonetheless, that sort of low cost is uncommon in right this moment’s NFL, the place most quarterbacks push to maximise each greenback of their worth.

There’s 3 completely different contracts to look at. There’s the longterm, costly one which locks him in for a number of years. There’s a shorter time period Baker Mayfield or Sam Darnold fashion deal. Then lastly, there’s the franchise tag.

Contract 1: 5 years, $280,000,000 ($56M per 12 months) with $175,000,000 assured

Contract 2: 3 years, $130,000,000 ($43.3 per 12 months) with $60,000,000 assured

Contract 3: 1 12 months, $46,073,000 totally assured (projected Franchise Tag)

To me, there are two sensible paths, relying on how negotiations unfold. If Daniel Jones pushes for a long-term deal much like these signed by Tua Tagovailoa, Trevor Lawrence, or Brock Purdy, the Colts ought to decline and as an alternative apply the franchise tag, projected at about $46 million. If Jones is open to a shorter-term settlement, Indianapolis ought to transfer shortly — one thing within the three-year vary with an opt-out after 12 months two, much like Sam Darnold’s deal, would make excellent sense.

As spectacular as Jones has been, committing to a four- or five-year contract proper now would merely be too dangerous. Nonetheless, the staff ought to already be getting ready for a cap hit within the low-to-mid $40 million vary for subsequent season. With a number of different contracts already backloaded, it wouldn’t be sensible to make use of the identical construction for Jones — particularly in the event that they go for a three-year deal.

Jones has earned himself a large elevate — but when the Colts keep good with their construction, either side can win.