Indianapolis Colts Week 10 Offensive Rankings and Evaluation: One drive wonders

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My plan for the remainder of the offseason is to write down particular person articles predicting 2025 efficiency for as many QBs as doable earlier than the season begins. I’ll begin with Colts’ opponents after which—time allowing—I’ll add as many identified starters as I can. To kick off the sequence, I’ll first revisit the predictions I made in the beginning of final season, which have been primarily based on a numerical evaluation of pre-2024 information.

Prediction 1: C.J. Stroud could have an enormous drop off from his rookie 12 months manufacturing.

Particularly, I stated his 2024 internet yards per dropback (NY/d), which ranked third-best in 2023, would fall out of the highest 10, and that his EPA per dropback (EPA/d) would drop beneath Twelfth. I used to be proper on each counts—he had a drastic fall-off, ending up twenty sixth in NY/d and twenty third in EPA/d.

mouseover definitions:
arsr,
edp,
opd,
sg%,
oz%,
pr%,
ttt,
adot,
ay/c,
cmp%,
cpoe,
yac,
yacoe,
ypa,
scr%,
ta%,
sck%,
aa%,
aay,
ny/d,
1st%,
td%,
to%,
epa/d,
psr

My prediction was primarily primarily based on 2 metrics from his 2023 season:

Yards After the Catch – YAC is pushed by two foremost variables: passing depth and accuracy. Brief, correct passes sometimes generate way more YAC than deep or inaccurate throws. In Stroud’s rookie 12 months, he had the second-longest common cross depth, but the posted the ninth-highest common YAC. Now possibly a QB can maintain that if he’s tremendous correct, however Stroud was nineteenth in Completion % Over Anticipated (cpoe), so accuracy was not a energy.

For 2024, I believed he would proceed to throw deep, however that his YAC numbers would fall beneath league common — and I used to be proper. In 2024, had the Twelfth-longest common depth of goal and his YAC rating dropped to twenty fourth.

Deep Passing Success – After I eliminated all 20+ yard cross makes an attempt from the 2023 information, Stroud’s numbers dropped outdoors of the highest 10. In different phrases, his robust rookie 12 months efficiency relied on nice deep passing. He accomplished 50.8% of his throws of 20+ yards—an absurdly excessive quantity (league avg was 39%). He additionally threw zero interceptions on these passes.

A quarterback who’s merely common at quick passing, however excels at deep passing is commonly extra fortunate than expert (see: 2024 Sam Darnold). I felt there was merely no method Stroud might proceed that stage of productionon on his deep passes—and he didn’t. In 2024, his completion share on deep passes dropped almost 20 factors to 31.3% (fifth-worst), and his interception charge rose from 0% to 9% (seventh-worst). He completed thirtieth in deep-ball EPA effectivity, which was an anchor on his total effectivity.

After all, different elements performed a task—reminiscent of elevated strain from the 4th longest time to throw—however even a cursory take a look at the 2023 numbers advised a possible decline. And 2025 isn’t trying that good for him both, however extra on that in a later article.

Prediction 2: Will Levis could have a horrible 12 months.

This was sort of a “yeah, effectively duh” prediction, however since I used to be overlaying the AFC South QBs, I used to be obligated to incorporate it. Particularly, I predicted he’d end as a bottom-10 quarterback in EPA per dropback (EPA/d) and Passing Success Fee (PSR). He ended up rating useless final in each classes for 2024, so… yeah.

mouseover definitions:
arsr,
edp,
opd,
sg%,
oz%,
pr%,
ttt,
adot,
ay/c,
cmp%,
cpoe,
yac,
yacoe,
ypa,
scr%,
ta%,
sck%,
aa%,
aay,
ny/d,
1st%,
td%,
to%,
epa/d,
psr

Two foremost numbers have been at play right here:

Opponent Protection: In 2023, he noticed the eighth-easiest slate of passing defenses, and the essential likelihood advised that his 2024 schedule could be more durable—and it was. In 2024, his opponents collectively ranked because the Twelfth-toughest cross defenses confronted by any QB.

About his 2023 season, I wrote this:

Defenses performed zone towards him 81% of the time, daring him to beat them beneath, which he didn’t and until he improves his twenty first ranked accuracy (cpoe), he received’t beat them beneath this 12 months both.

In 2024, he confronted the 4th highest charge of zone protection and he ranked twenty fourth in accuracy. He’s simply not a man to select you aside beneath.

Response to Stress: Stress occurs—however how a quarterback responds to it’s what actually issues. Levis removes the ball shortly, which generally is a constructive, however when strain arrives, his decision-making breaks down. In 2023, he ranked twenty third in scramble charge, thirtieth in throwaway charge, and 4th in sack charge. A quarterback’s response to strain not often adjustments, so if strain remained a problem in 2024, it was doubtless {that a} excessive sack whole would observe.

Heading into 2024, the Titans invested of their offensive line by each the draft and free company. However offensive traces take time to develop chemistry, and there was little motive to anticipate a direct turnaround. Their Move Block Win Fee was mainly unchanged—from twenty eighth in 2023 to twenty seventh in 2024—and Levis remained some of the pressured QBs in 2024 (tenth). And within the face of that strain, he posted the very best sack charge within the league, taking a sack on 11.2% of his dropbacks.

Because the Titans drafted Cam Ward, I doubt I will probably be doing a 2025 prediction for Levis.

Prediction 3: Trevor Lawrence will probably be a high 10 QB

Properly, I used to be fairly improper on this one. Particularly, I stated Lawrence could be within the high 10 in effectivity for EPA/d and PSR. His precise numbers ended up rating twentieth and twenty second, respectively.

mouseover definitions:
arsr,
edp,
opd,
sg%,
oz%,
pr%,
ttt,
adot,
ay/c,
cmp%,
cpoe,
yac,
yacoe,
ypa,
scr%,
ta%,
sck%,
aa%,
aay,
ny/d,
1st%,
td%,
to%,
epa/d,
psr

Right here was my reasoning on the time.

Opponent Protection: In 2023, Lawrence completed with first rate effectivity numbers towards the fifth hardest opponent passing defenses. So, it was doubtless he would face far simpler opponents in 2024 and enhance his already stable numbers. Proper? Nope.

In 2024, Lawrence confronted the seventh-toughest cross defenses within the league—barely simpler, however not by a lot. I used to be betting the possibilities and misplaced on an unlikely draw—it occurs. Previously, Lawrence had discovered success throwing fast, quick, correct passes, and I anticipated a return to that towards softer defenses. As an alternative, robust opponents took away the beneath routes, daring him to beat them excessive. He responded with the second-longest common cross distance and the fourth-most deep passing makes an attempt (20+ yards). Sadly, he has by no means been a robust deep-ball passer, and his luck didn’t change final 12 months. On throws of 20+ yards, he ranked twenty sixth in landing charge and had the Twelfth-highest interception charge.

Turnovers: The second motive I assumed Lawrence may do effectively was that in 2023, he had the fourth-highest turnover charge—however a big portion of these have been fumbles, that are fluky (i.e., random). I anticipated his turnover charge to regress in the direction of league common, and I used to be proper—it dropped from 3.3% to 2.5% (56th percentile). Nonetheless, that enchancment wasn’t sufficient to offset his in any other case poor effectivity.

Anthony Richardson

I didn’t make a prediction for AR as he had no numbers to base something on, however I did say that I’d regulate his accuracy (cpoe) and his deserted charge (aa%) claiming that “If he’s inaccurate and abandons the cross loads, we’re in hassle”.

mouseover definitions:
arsr,
edp,
opd,
sg%,
oz%,
pr%,
ttt,
adot,
ay/c,
cmp%,
cpoe,
yac,
yacoe,
ypa,
scr%,
ta%,
sck%,
aa%,
aay,
ny/d,
1st%,
td%,
to%,
epa/d,
psr

Properly, as you already know, he was very inaccurate—rating thirty second in CPOE and Cmp% and that merely has to enhance if he’s to be succesful.

Nonetheless, although he confronted the third most strain, he had a decently low abandonment charge (52nd percentile in AA%), which is promising. When a quarterback abandons a cross, he can scramble, throw the ball away, or take a sack—and also you’d desire the outcomes in that order. Richardson’s numbers align with that hierarchy: he ranked tenth in scramble charge, Twelfth in throwaway charge, and twenty seventh in sack charge, which is absolutely promising. It suggests he’s making good selections underneath strain.

After all, one total purpose ought to be to cut back strain. The O-Line clearly bears loads fo that burden, however Richardson has the eighth longest time in pocket (tip), which isn’t serving to the trigger. That prolonged time definitely results in lengthy throws, however it comes at a value by way of elevated strain.

CONCLUSION

On the shut of my prediction article, I wrote :

There are numerous different predictions that I needed to incorporate (Russell Wilson will probably be horrible in Pittsburgh, Justin Herbert nonetheless received’t be a high 10 QB) . . .

I simply wish to go on file that regardless of the Steeler’s making the playoffs, Russell Wilson was certainly horrible (twenty sixth PSR, twenty second EPA/d) and Justin Herbert was but once more outdoors the highest 10 in QB effectivity (18th PSR, 14th EPA/d). So, I’m counting these as right predictions as effectively, which brings me as much as 4 out 5 right predictions for 2024! Observe: sure, that is petty and infantile, but additionally essential to me.

I actually get pleasure from making these predictions, so I’ll get busy trying on the slate of QBs the Colts will face this coming season and begin cranking out some articles.