The Evolution Of Mike Evans In Liam Coen’s Offense

The Mike Evans document watch is on excessive alert.

Now in his eleventh season, there are particular issues which have change into anticipated of Evans.

He is going to get 1,000 yards each season.

And he is a downfield ball winner.

That first certainty continues to be right. Week 18 will proceed his record-setting streak. However that second certainty will not be one thing that we are able to rely on. However that doesn’t imply he’s any much less nice.

As a matter of reality, it might be proof he’s higher than season’s previous. And he’s creating into a brand new kind of receiver. And that bodes effectively for him as he strikes into a brand new period of his profession.

Mike Evans Is Nonetheless An Elite Producer

Bucs OC Liam Coen and WR Mike Evans – Photograph by: Cliff Welch/PR

As is the case at a sure level yearly, early on in 2024 the cries began.

“Why isn’t offensive coordinator Liam Coen designing performs for Mike Evans?”

“Why don’t they throw the ball to Mike Evans extra?”

By way of the primary six video games of the season Evans had simply 310 yards, averaging a pedestrian 51.7 yards per sport. These cries had been much less vocal than years previous because of the success of the offense general in addition to the unimaginable play of Chris Godwin. And if you happen to had been simply field scores, one won’t fault you for pondering at age 31, Evans was maybe slowing down.

However since his return from damage after the bye week, Evans has been producing at one of many highest charges of his profession. Let’s create a stage of context as a result of we’re speaking about somebody who’s a future Corridor of Famer, and we must always perceive what his “regular” stage of manufacturing is.

Including in his playoff performances, Evans has caught 872 passes for 13,313 yards and 110 touchdowns over 176 video games. Common that out over a now commonplace 17 sport season and that turns into 84 receptions, 1,286 yards and 10.6 touchdowns.

Now let’s have a look at his post-injury manufacturing. In six video games he has 39 receptions for 580 yards and 5 touchdowns. Let’s standardize that towards his profession. That averages out to 111 catches for 1,643 yards and 14 touchdowns.

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photograph by: USA At this time

Did I point out he’s 31 years previous? Oh, I did.

Did I point out he’s most likely nonetheless feeling the hamstring pressure that sidelined him for a month?

And he’s doing it whereas enjoying much less.

His common variety of routes per sport over his profession is 37. Over this most up-to-date stretch he has run 17% much less routes per sport. A part of that’s the Bucs boat-racing most of their opponents for the reason that Week 11 bye. A part of it’s the crew attempting to maintain him contemporary for the playoffs due to his age.

Did I point out he’s 31?

A part of it’s the crew attempting to protect that hamstring. Did I point out he’s nonetheless nursing a hamstring damage?

However right here’s probably the most fascinating piece of data I got here throughout.

Over his complete profession, that is the third-most environment friendly six-game run of manufacturing of his profession. Evans is averaging 3.19 yards per route run. The one two stretches that beat his final six video games are weeks 5-11 of 2015 when he averaged 3.31 and weeks 4-11 of 2014.

Simply to recap, Evans’ three greatest six-game stretches of soccer got here in his second season in Tampa Bay, his rookie season … and remarkably his eleventh season.

Mike Evans Is Turning into A Totally different Receiver

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photograph by: Cliff Welch/PR

And it is a new model of Mike Evans. Solely 15% of his targets are of 20+ air yards. That’s the lowest price of his profession by nearly 4%. And it’s not simply that he’s buying and selling these targets for beneath alternatives. He’s getting half of his targets between 11-20 yards, which is the third-highest price of his profession.

Evans is being moved across the discipline at a better price to seek out him extra advantageous matchups and stop the protection from merely having the ability to bracket him on one aspect of a 3×1 as in years previous. From Week 12 to Week 16 Evans was within the slot 40.8% of the time. In solely 10 different cases has he had a five-game run of upper slot utilization.

“Once you’ve acquired a man that usually defenses need to cloud and also you simply stick him on the market at No. 1 and say, ‘Mike, run vertical,’ the probabilities of him getting one-on-one are, at instances, little,” Bucs offensive coordinator Liam Coen mentioned. “You’ve acquired to choose and select your spots the place you will get him one-on-one at instances, primarily based on the texture of the sport. If we simply caught him on the market and [told him] to run vertical 5 – 6 instances a sport and also you catch one in every of them, I don’t know if [those are] actually nice odds for us to get him to the touch the ball as many instances as we’d like him to.

“So, a few of that stuff could also be tweaked from what he could have been used to doing, however I believe he’s doing an important job for us catching the ball over the center and being that massive goal inside there. Clearly, if you happen to do depart him one-on-one, [Baker Mayfield] goes to most likely give him an opportunity. It’s form of the most effective of each worlds, I hope. Hopefully we’ll be capable to proceed to take action.”

His route distribution is evolving as effectively. He’s operating go routes, curls, and seams 10% lower than he did from 2020 to 2023. Rather than these routes are slants, posts, drags and deep crosses. The Bucs are attempting to get Evans over the center of the sector extra.

All informed his route distribution on in-breakers (slants, digs, deep crosses, posts and drags) is as much as 6% this yr from 33 to 39%. These have taken the place of the normal verticals like fly patterns, deep curls and seams. And you may see it in his common depth of goal. Evans is on tempo for a career-low 13.0 common depth of goal. However his yards per catch isn’t struggling very a lot. At 14.1 yards per catch, it might tie the third-lowest output of his profession however would mark the fifth of 11 seasons the place he was between 14 and 15 yards per catch.

This coincides with an evolution of his quarterback. Baker Mayfield is throwing deep much less usually. He has focused the deep portion of the sector, 20+ air yards, on a profession low 8.9% of his throws this yr. It’s simply good soccer to regulate the route distribution of your greatest receiver to match a change within the quarterback. In any other case, that receiver turns into extra decoy than anything.

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photograph by: Cliff Welch/PR

And with these refined adjustments there are marginal enhancements in different areas that assist make up for the shortage of downfield explosive catches. Evans is on tempo for a career-high 69.9% catch price. That’s practically 10% increased than his profession price.

It is a man who spent three years with Tom Brady throwing him the ball. His 27.3% goal share is the best since Subsequent Gen Stats began monitoring that metric in 2018. A complete of 45% of Evans’ catches have gained 15 or extra yards this season. That’s the fourth-highest price of his profession and second-highest since 2019.

All of that is to say that Evans nonetheless has “it” at age 31. However that “it” could also be completely different than the “it” he had earlier in his profession. He’s greater than only a downfield, sideline, contested catch ball-winner. Evans’ route operating is extra nuanced than most give him credit score for. He creates straightforward separation in zone and man protection. He can win over the center of the sector in visitors. He has caught seven of his eight contested catch alternatives of lower than 10 air yards this season.

This all bodes effectively for Evans for the remainder of this yr, subsequent yr, and fairly presumably past. He has tailored his sport to a brand new offense, a brand new NFL and to his advancing age. Mike Evans is extra productive than ever. And that’s a scary thought.