Faculty Soccer Playoff: Joel Klatt’s CFP predictions
The primary spherical of the 2024-25 Faculty Soccer Playoff takes place this weekend. Earlier than the video games start, I needed to select every of the first-round matchups and share my bracket for the inaugural version of the expanded 12-team playoff.
You may need to take my recommendation as effectively, as I went 4-1 in my picks towards the unfold throughout convention championship weekend on “The Joel Klatt Present,” bringing my file to 49-30 (62%) for the season. I additionally gave out that Colorado two-way star Travis Hunter‘s 60-1 Heisman choose earlier than the season, so it has been a very good 12 months.
That mentioned, let’s take a extra in-depth have a look at the first-round tilts earlier than choosing the remainder of the bracket!
No. 10 Indiana (+7.5) vs. No. 7 Notre Dame (Friday, 8 p.m. ET)
Indiana failed its first powerful street check at Columbus, shedding 38-15 to Ohio State. It mainly gave up two touchdowns on particular groups, one on a return and the opposite on a blocked punt that gave the Buckeyes a brief discipline. Indiana made loads of errors and struggled to cope with Ohio State’s defensive stress.
However after I known as that recreation, I mentioned that Indiana could be higher the following probability it bought. This group of gamers and coaches hadn’t confronted something near a street recreation at Ohio State. What we have seen over the course of the season are groups failing to play effectively in a street surroundings towards a top-five group the primary go-around. Each Georgia and Ohio State misplaced their first top-five street matchup earlier this season earlier than profitable their second street top-five tilt.
The chance has now arrived for Indiana to probably do the identical. I firmly consider that Indiana will play a significantly better recreation towards Notre Dame than it did towards Ohio State. The problems the Hoosiers had towards the Buckeyes are fixable. You may repair the punt points and the safety plans, with the latter principally being missed assignments.
Notre Dame has probably the greatest speeding assaults and defenses within the nation. That units up an actual power vs. power matchup. Notre Dame leans on its dynamic and potent run recreation, whereas Indiana has the highest speeding protection within the nation. If you happen to had been to construct a group that will win at Notre Dame, it would be one like Indiana. The Hoosiers have been unimaginable defensively since they shuffled their secondary round in Week 8, solely permitting 71 speeding yards per recreation this season. If they’ll deal with operating again Jeremiyah Love and Notre Dame’s Tenth-ranked speeding assault (225 speeding yards per recreation), that is your entire matchup on this recreation.
Then again, you surprise if Indiana will be capable of defend quarterback Kurtis Rourke. If Rourke is upright, Indiana will be capable of transfer the soccer. Now, I do not assume Indiana goes to go gangbusters on Notre Dame’s stout protection, however I believe this offense realized its lesson towards Ohio State. The largest query I’ve about this recreation? Notre Dame’s passing assault. I believe Indiana will be capable of restrict Notre Dame’s potential to run the ball. If Riley Leonard is in loads of apparent passing conditions, I like Indiana as a result of Notre Dame’s passing offense hasn’t developed the best way you need over the course of the 12 months. Leonard hasn’t thrown for greater than 230 yards in a recreation this season. He helps within the run recreation, however Notre Dame has solely had 4 video games the place it is thrown for a minimum of 200 yards.
Notre Dame’s final outing introduced some issues defensively as effectively. The Irish gave up 35 factors and nearly 500 yards towards USC, who arguably had the very best offense Notre Dame has confronted this season.
I like Indiana to not simply cowl, however to additionally win the sport.
Decide: Indiana 34, Notre Dame 31; Indiana covers +7.5
No. 11 SMU (+8.5) vs. No. 6 Penn State (Saturday, midday ET)
I have been calling for a white-out playoff recreation all season (stunning you are able to do a kind of video games at midday, too). Blissful Valley is likely one of the nice environments in school soccer. It is an extremely loud stadium, and Penn State does a outstanding job defensively at leaping the snap depend and making the most of the group noise. That would be the case on this recreation, particularly if it is within the 20s and snows the evening earlier than. Whether it is chilly with some potential precipitation, Penn State has the benefit of working towards in that climate all week lengthy. SMU will not get that benefit of feeling what it is perhaps on Saturday till it arrives in Blissful Valley, so it is perhaps a little bit of a shock to their techniques.
As for the groups themselves, I like SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings. He is a dual-threat signal-caller who has led the Mustangs to a 9-1 file since he took over as their starter. Whereas he may be explosive, Jennings has had a little bit of a turnover downside currently. He is dedicated 10 turnovers within the final six video games. He will have to scrub that up towards a Penn State protection that may capitalize off that.
SMU has different items as effectively (operating again Brashard Smith has over 1,500 yards from scrimmage) that make it a very good group, but it surely hasn’t confronted anybody near Penn State defensively. Penn State did not do an awesome job towards Oregon. Nonetheless, nobody actually has this season. Abdul Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton firing off the sting for Penn State with the house crowd behind them goes to pressure SMU to run the ball in an effort to gradual the Nittany Lions down. The groups which have overwhelmed Penn State in Blissful Valley have been ready to try this in recent times.
Penn State sometimes does not lose video games it ought to win, both. Say no matter you need about head coach James Franklin’s file in huge video games, however he wins the video games he is speculated to win. Though Penn State misplaced its two largest video games this season, the Nittany Lions performed higher in these video games in comparison with the final couple of seasons. So, I believe Penn State is getting to a degree the place it’ll ultimately break by and win a recreation as an underdog.
SMU has overachieved to get thus far. This group misplaced to the one two top-25 groups it confronted this season and benefited from a weak schedule within the ACC, with six of its eight league video games coming towards opponents who went .500 or worse in league play.
Andy Kotelnicki’s offense has been taking part in effectively, scoring 37 towards Oregon within the Large Ten title recreation. Drew Allar made some nice throws whereas Penn State rushed for 290 yards in that recreation. SMU can rush the passer a bit bit, but it surely does not have sufficient.
Prediction: Penn State 35, SMU 14; Penn State covers -8.5
Did imbalanced scheduling have a giant impact on the ultimate CFP rankings?
No. 12 Clemson (+11.5) vs. No. 5 Texas (Saturday, 4 p.m. ET)
Texas’ protection is perhaps essentially the most underrated unit in all of America. I believe the query that must be answered going into this recreation is that this: Can Clemson rating over 20 factors? It solely scored three factors towards Georgia and 14 factors towards South Carolina — who I believe are the 2 finest defenses Clemson has confronted this season.
Cade Klubnik and Clemson will go up towards probably the greatest secondaries within the nation. Thorpe Award winner Jahdae Barron leads a Texas secondary that is given up the fewest passing yards per recreation this season. I do not assume Clemson’s going to out of the blue discover the firepower wanted to have a giant day towards Texas. So, I do not assume Clemson will rating 20 or extra factors.
That results in the following query: What’s Texas’ offense going to do on this recreation? There hasn’t been an actual firework present for the Longhorns’ offense within the again half of the 12 months. Quarterback Quinn Ewers has been battling an ankle damage and his lack of mobility has affected them. He hasn’t performed very effectively, and I’ve candidly felt at factors that Texas’ offense could be higher with backup Arch Manning. I hate being hyperbolic, however I believe it is the case as a result of when Ewers does not have mobility, he cannot scamper for first downs. That modifications the dynamic for Texas’ offense as a result of Ewers does not throw guys open lots on account of his incapacity to vary the tempo of his throws. Ewers is a float thrower, and he sometimes throws with contact.
Steve Sarkisian’s going to have his cape on. However he sometimes has nice recreation plans following lengthy layoffs. I believe Texas can get to twenty factors due to that. Nonetheless, Ewers goes to have a fast leash.
Decide: Texas 27, Clemson 17; Clemson covers +11.5
Texas: Ought to the Longhorns play Arch Manning within the CFP? Joel Klatt Present
No. 9 Tennessee vs. No. 8 Ohio State (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET)
If you are going to construct a group designed to present OSU issues in “The Shoe,” you’d construct a group like Tennessee — a group that is rugged and deep on the line of defense and may efficiently depend on operating the ball. Tennessee is precisely that, rating top-10 in speeding on either side of the ball, so, the stress is on Ryan Day and Chip Kelly to verify they don’t seem to be taking part in Tennessee’s recreation.
Michigan baited them into taking part in an inside recreation. It did not work out for Ohio State as a result of Michigan’s two finest gamers wrecked that recreation. You would be unsuitable to assume Day and Kelly did not be taught that lesson with a number of weeks off after the Michigan recreation. Day already did that on the defensive facet of the ball this season after the Oregon loss, altering Ohio State’s philosophy on that finish. Ohio State bought extra dynamic speeding the passer and permitting security Caleb Downs to develop into extra concerned on each play.
Day has additionally proven that he is realized classes on the offensive facet of the ball all through his head teaching profession. After shedding to Clemson within the 2019 CFP semifinal, Ohio State has been aggressive in its subsequent CFP and Rose Bowl video games. It is scored a minimum of 40 factors in three of these 4 such video games since then. OSU must play this recreation at tempo and area, which is precisely what Kelly is. He simply must be himself. Take the sport out of the offensive line’s fingers and play in area along with your dynamic extensive receivers (Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka, Carnell Tate).
As for Tennessee, Dylan Sampson can actually run the rock, however Tennessee does not appear to have a secondary choice offensively. While you take away Tennessee’s potential to area the sector out and run the soccer, it does not have the flexibility to get huge with personnel teams or change its recreation plan. If Ohio State takes that away, I’ve my questions on whether or not quarterback Nico Iamaleava can gentle up the Buckeyes’ protection in a method essential to win.
Tennessee’s offense additionally hasn’t been that dynamic towards prime opponents. It averaged about 20 factors per recreation towards FBS groups with a profitable file this season. Iamaleava hasn’t actually progressed. So, Ohio State has to decelerate Tennessee’s speeding assault. Ohio State’s cross rush ought to be capable of get to Iamaleava if it does that.
Ohio State has the very best complete and scoring protection within the nation. Do you assume that Tennessee will, unexpectedly, gentle up Ohio State? I’ve my doubts.
Decide: Ohio State 31, Tennessee 20; Ohio State covers -7.5
Ohio State: How will Ryan Day strategy the sport plan vs. Tennessee?
QUARTERFINALS
Rose Bowl: No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Oregon
Oregon has appeared higher than anybody else this season. We have seen the failings of Ohio State. Finally, I believe Oregon would get the sting over Ohio State once more if the 2 groups met within the Rose Bowl. Decide: Oregon
Does Oregon have a tough half in CFP?
Fiesta Bowl: No. 5 Texas vs. No. 4 Arizona State
Arizona State operating again Cam Skattebo is a superb participant. Arizona State has had an awesome 12 months, however I do not assume it would be a match for Texas within the Fiesta Bowl because it goes up towards that stout Longhorns protection. Decide: Texas
Peach Bowl: No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 3 Boise State
If Penn State will get by SMU, it has a positive path within the CFP. Boise State has Ashton Jeanty and … some questions past that, a minimum of with regards to a possible matchup towards a title contender. Decide: Penn State
Sugar Bowl: No. 10 Indiana vs. No. 2 Georgia
Going again to the Indiana-ND matchup, I do assume that recreation is a coin flip. So, I would not be shocked if Notre Dame received. No matter who wins that recreation, although, I believe Georgia will beat both group within the Sugar Bowl. Decide: Georgia
SEMIFINALS
Cotton Bowl: No. 5 Texas vs. No. 1 Oregon
If the primary two rounds play out the best way I believe they may, we’ll get a pair of Large Ten vs. SEC matchups to find out the championship recreation. I believe Oregon’s pace and dynamism could be an excessive amount of for Texas to deal with. Decide: Oregon
Orange Bowl: No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 2 Georgia
I simply can’t stop Kirby Good. When he will get into these conditions, it seems like Georgia at all times wins the sport. Do you additionally assume James Franklin and Penn State will be capable of beat Georgia at a impartial web site? I do know I mentioned that Franklin appeared to be getting nearer to profitable a giant recreation like this one, however I do not assume it’ll occur this 12 months. It might be a very shut recreation, although. Decide: Georgia
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 1 Oregon
Dan Lanning taking over his former group, which can be the group he took on in his first recreation as Oregon’s head coach in the identical stadium. Do you bear in mind the results of that recreation? Georgia received 49-3 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Properly, I believe Lanning will get the win this time. Oregon goes to be my choose to win the nationwide championship.
The Geese have had a outstanding 12 months and they’d be the primary group to go 16-0. Undoubtedly, the Geese would’ve earned it as effectively, defeating Ohio State for a second time together with wins over Texas and Georgia after profitable the Large Ten title of their first season within the convention.
Joel Klatt is FOX Sports activities’ lead school soccer recreation analyst and the host of the podcast “The Joel Klatt Present.” Observe him at @joelklatt and subscribe to the “Joel Klatt Present” on YouTube.
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