Pewter Predictions For Week 15

BUCS at CHARGERS

WHEN: Sunday, December 15, 2024 | WHERE: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, CA) | KICKOFF: 4:25 p.m. ET | TV: FOX

Recreation day is approaching, and it’s time for the Pewter Report employees to make its weekly sport predictions and supply up our sport preview of this week’s matchup. Tell us what you assume within the article feedback part and add your prediction, too.

Scott Reynolds:

Bucs OC Liam Coen and QB Baker Mayfield – Photograph by: Cliff Welch/PR

I’m involved that the Bucs protection hasn’t been mounted during the last three video games when the unit has surrendered a league-low 14.3 factors per sport, however slightly the problems on Todd Bowles’ unit have been merely masked by enjoying in opposition to lesser offenses. Holding the Giants, Panthers and Raiders – three of the worst groups within the league – to simply 43 whole factors is spectacular, but anticipated, proper? I simply don’t belief the protection, particularly with Tampa Bay dealing with an elite quarterback like Justin Herbert, who has a giant arm and has solely thrown one interception in opposition to 14 touchdowns this yr.

But I do believe in Liam Coen’s offense placing up extra 20 factors or extra in Los Angeles in opposition to the league’s high scoring protection, which permits a mean of 15.9 factors per sport. The Bucs have solely scored lower than 20 factors simply as soon as this season – in a 26-7 Week 3 loss to Denver. Baker Mayfield must cease turning the ball over after throwing two picks in every of the final two video games to ensure that the group to have an opportunity to tug off a West Coast upset.

The Chargers have an incredible crimson zone protection and drive opponents to kick subject objectives slightly than rating touchdowns. That, mixed with a plus-11 turnover margin, which is third-best within the league, offers Los Angeles a determined benefit over Tampa Bay, which is minus-2 within the turnover margin. And will this sport come right down to subject objectives like I believe it can, Cameron Dicker is connecting at a 93% price, which rivals what Chase McLaughlin has performed kicking for the Bucs this yr. Sadly the Bucs’ successful streak stops at three video games with an in depth Week 15 loss to the Chargers.

REYNOLDS’ GAME PREDICTION: Chargers 26, Bucs 23
REYNOLDS’ SEASON RECORD: 9-4

Matt Matera: Bucs Win In Unordinary Approach

Bucs RT Tristan Wirfs and RB Rachaad White – Photograph by: Cliff Welch/PR

This matchup between the Bucs and Chargers comes right down to which group will get to regulate the tempo of play and enter their type of offense and protection. The Bucs wish to win with their offense getting out to a giant lead, counting on their offense as they common 28 factors per sport. The Chargers, then again, have solely allowed greater than 20 factors twice this season. They wish to shield the soccer and get right into a rock combat with the opponent, trying to win with working the ball and physicality.

What’s nice about this iteration of the Bucs is that they will win in several methods. With a future Corridor of Famer in Mike Evans, it’s straightforward to lean on him with the passing sport because the Bucs have performed earlier than. However the staple of Tampa Bay’s offense this yr has been the working sport. It’ll be more durable if Bucky Irving doesn’t play, however they’re nonetheless succesful with Rachaad White and Sean Tucker. I believe the Chargers will orchestrate their type of sport with floor and pound, however Tampa Bay not solely matches that however does it higher. An important issue of all of it isn’t any turnovers by Baker Mayfield. Be aggressive, however not too excessive.

One other factor that’ll assist the Bucs is that their greatest weak point is cross protection and stopping the tight ends. They need to welcome anytime the Chargers wish to run it in order to not exploit what they do the worst. Los Angeles is banged up with their ability place gamers. We’ll see if tight finish Will Dissly or broad receiver Ladd McConkey can go, however this may simply be the week the place cross protection isn’t the most important concern. One thing flukey might occur on this sport. Possibly a uncommon turnover by Justin Herbert or a blocked punt. It gained’t be the prettiest of video games, however one the place the Bucs proceed their successful streak.

MATERA’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 22, Chargers 19
MATERA’S SEASON RECORD: 8-5

Bailey Adams: Bucs Cross Their Largest Remaining Common Season Take a look at

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photograph by: USA Right now

There’s little question that that is the Bucs’ greatest check left within the 2024 common season. They arrive in at 7-6 and with their remaining video games coming in opposition to two five-win groups (the Cowboys and Saints) and a three-win group (the Panthers), a victory over the 8-5 Chargers would go a great distance of their quest for an NFC South title four-peat. It will additionally function one thing of a press release win, as it might show that Tampa Bay isn’t solely feasting on a weaker schedule down the stretch. However can they cross this check and make that assertion?

I believe so. I’m trusting the Bucs’ fifth-ranked scoring offense (27.9 PPG) to discover a approach in opposition to the Chargers’ top-ranked scoring protection (15.9 PPG allowed). Baker Mayfield has to play a clear sport, and Mike Evans has to indicate up in a giant approach and hopefully discover the top zone. However maybe what’s much more urgent is the necessity for the Tampa Bay offensive line to say itself and out-physical a really powerful and gritty Chargers protection. Doing so would assist the Buccaneers run sport keep scorching and management the move of this sport.

The Los Angeles protection has solely allowed greater than 21 factors twice this season, giving up 27 to Joe Burrow and the Bengals and 30 to Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. So, I’m placing lots of religion in Mayfield and the Bucs by predicting them to attain 24. On the similar time, I believe I’m placing lots of religion (an excessive amount of?) in Todd Bowles’ protection to carry Justin Herbert and the Chargers underneath 24. Not that L.A. is scoring at a excessive clip, after all. It’s simply that it is a banged-up protection that has been suspect even within the uncommon instances when it has been wholesome this season. And I don’t actually belief this group anymore. Ah, however. The Bucs win a fourth straight by toughing one out on the West Coast. Why not?

ADAMS’ GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 24, Chargers 20
ADAMS’ SEASON RECORD: 9-4

Josh Queipo: Bucs Win Canine Combat In Final-Minute Style But Once more

Bucs Cb Jamel Dean - Photo By: Cliff Welch P/R

Bucs CB Jamel Dean – Photograph by: Cliff Welch P/R

The Bucs have been profitable in latest weeks on the backs of a protection profiting from struggling offenses. Effectively, I’ve some information for you. Since Week 12 the Chargers offense is twenty first in EPA/play and twenty eighth in success price. It is a group that tries to ascertain the run and hit shot performs behind it. And whereas it has labored sufficient, in tandem with a stout protection, I don’t see them rattling off 24 or extra factors in opposition to a Bucs protection that may nonetheless cease the run properly.

Tampa Bay’s protection has a plethora of accidents however ought to nonetheless have the three most necessary items to stopping a Chargers receiving corps that isn’t superb behind a dinged-up Ladd McConkey. Jamel Dean, Zyon McCollum and Tykee Smith all look to be wholesome to assist negate Los Angeles’ passing assault. And after some constructive man-to-man reps in Week 14 I wouldn’t be shocked if Todd Bowles dialed up extra Cowl 1 to problem Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnston to win in opposition to large bodily corners.

Now about that stout Chargers protection. They’re a Prime 10 unit that may doubtless give the Bucs points. However don’t depend out Tampa Bay’s potential to attain. The Bucs have confronted 4 of the highest 11 defenses, as measured by EPA/play, within the NFL. In these video games they’ve averaged 20 factors per sport. Take out the Broncos, who play a totally completely different type of protection than the Chargers and that common jumps to 24.33. Offensive coordinator Liam Coen has been cooking all season, and the run sport is at its peak. I count on a bounce-back sport from quarterback Baker Mayfield and the Bucs to safe a high quality win late within the season.

QUEIPO’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 24, Chargers 19
QUEIPO’S SEASON RECORD: 8-5

Adam Slivon: Bucs Lack The Jolt To Win In Los Angeles

Chargers QB Justin Herbert and HC Jim Harbaugh – Photograph by: USA Right now

Sunday’s sport marks the most important remaining check for the Bucs this season. Coming off the bye week, Tampa Bay defeated the Giants, Panthers, and Raiders. Because it stands, these three group’s mixed information are simply 7-32. Even coming off an in depth, 19-17 loss to the Chiefs, the Chargers stand at 8-5 and can be trying to play their type of soccer again residence. It’s a mode of soccer that has shaped underneath Jim Harbaugh throughout his first season on the helm. The Chargers’ id has developed to being a group that doesn’t put factors up lots of factors to defeat opponents; slightly, they win video games by outmatching groups bodily on offense and protection.

Co-defensive coordinator Kacy Rodgers mentioned it greatest this week when discussing how the Chargers’ offense operates, saying that it poses “a multitude of challenges” for the Bucs’ protection. The unit has performed higher in latest weeks in opposition to groups which have struggled offensively, however that may change when dealing with Justin Herbert. Though Herbert doesn’t must be the gunslinger, he has develop into a extremely environment friendly quarterback working the present whereas nonetheless possessing the bodily traits that maintain defenses sincere. What works in Tampa Bay’s favor is that Herbert, Gus Edwards, Ladd McConkey, and Will Dissly are all battling accidents. Already lacking J.Ok. Dobbins and missing broad receivers, Todd Bowles may have a plan to cease Los Angeles’ remaining weapons.

The Bucs’ personal offense has been high-flying, however they face the league’s stingiest scoring protection with expertise on all three ranges. With Bucky Irving but to observe this week and certain out of motion, that places extra on Rachaad White’s shoulders. Baker Mayfield could have his arms full shopping for time and discovering holes in a protection with 39 sacks and 17 takeaways, and his potential to not flip the ball over would be the deciding issue. All season, I predicted the group would fall brief and lose this sport down the stretch. I see this matchup being extra whilst of late, however the Chargers have the protection to maintain this low-scoring whereas the Bucs’ protection is just too under-manned to count on the identical.

SLIVON’S GAME PREDICTION: Chargers 20, Bucs 17
SLIVON’S SEASON RECORD: 9-4