Colts’ Week 15 QB Evaluation: Identical story, totally different recreation

Because of the nflFastR challenge, and NFL NextGen Stats for the well timed sources of information.

For these of you new to this, I’ll publish key QB stats every week judging how nicely the upcoming opponent QB has carried out. Sure, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling affect these numbers however they’re primarily QB measures. I’ll in all probability modify the charts all through the season. Commentary will likely be transient however be happy to let me know within the feedback that stats aren’t every little thing. (click on charts for bigger view)

There are those who consider the momentum fairy brought about Anthony Richardson, by means of no fault of his personal, to wrestle within the 2nd half after Jonathon Taylor fumbled away a landing. I‘m right here to inform you, he struggled within the first half too.

HOW WELL?

Within the chart beneath, The J.T. fumble occurred after the primary move of the 2nd half. Previous to that, Richardson had 5 complete dropbacks out of 20 that added optimistic worth. He accomplished 6 of 18 passes together with an interception. Does that sound like a man that was lighting it up previous to the fumble?

Now to be honest, I haven’t included his speeding TD, as a result of it was not a move play, however even when I did embrace that, its fairly clear he was not hit with the momentum stick. He simply performed the entire recreation like he has all yr, dangerous on most performs with just a few “wow’ performs sprinkled in.

Each his EPA per dropback and Passing Success Fee have been near the worst of week 15 and sadly similar to many earlier weeks. He earned a season low in internet yards per dropback and his first down price was equally poor.

HOW FAR?

He accomplished solely 4 of his first 10 passes and it didn’t get a lot better after that. He ended the sport with a 44.7% completion price virtually matching his season 47% that he began the sport with.

He had a pleasant cluster of first downs within the 4th qtr, however being down by 2+ scores may need had one thing to do with that.

The depth of his targets ticked down this week, however his completion depth has fallen off a cliff the final 2 video games. Mainly, he’s not hitting the deep passes as a lot.

TO WHO?

He unfold the ball round fairly nicely. Although he didn’t join with Pierce or Mitchell, he did preserve the Denver protection on their toes.

The EPA per goal was fairly dangerous throughout all receivers, with solely Gould having an above common day on his 1 catch.

HOW ACCURATE?

Accuracy has been the identical story all yr . . . nicely, all yr save for the Jets recreation. AR simply isn’t good at finishing passes.

The arguments to hand-waive away this possibly deadly flaw in his passing has grown skinny. If I take away all drops, throw-aways and restrict the passes to below 20 yards, Richardson nonetheless has the worst season completion % within the league. Even on makes an attempt > 20 yards, he’s under-performing the league averages.

It’s not a query of if he has an issue, it’s a query of if he can repair it.

HOW FAST?

His Time to Throw elevated once more this week. For every week the place the common depth of completion is <5 yards, that’s not good.

TO WHERE?

He didn’t have a lot success anyplace on the sphere, similar to many of the season.

DASHBOARD

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

arsr,
edp,
opd,
sg%,
oz%,
pr%,
ttt,
adot,
ay/c,
cmp%,
cpoe,
yac,
yacoe,
ypa,
scr%,
ta%,
sck%,
aa%,
aay,
ny/d,
1st%,
td%,
to%,
epa/d,
psr

To summarize Richardson’s week 15:

• The Colts leaned on the run recreation and the speeding wasn’t nice (twenty second edp, twenty first arsr)
• AR continued to take snaps virtually solely out of the shotgun whereas Denver gave him heavy zone reads (third sg%, twelfth oz%).
• He was pressured many of the day, however a giant a part of that was him holding the ball far too lengthy (third pr%, fifth ttt).
• He nonetheless threw it deep however was unable to attach and ended with about a mean completion depth (seventh adot, seventeenth ay/c).
• He was extremely inaccurate, which saved yac low and depressed his yards per try (twenty ninth cpoe, twenty third yacoe, twenty ninth ypa)
• He had an above common deserted move price, however given such a excessive strain price, it’s truly decrease than anticipated (third pr%, twelfth aa%). As he has carried out all yr, when he abandons the play, he does so by throwing the ball away and scrambling as an alternative of taking sacks (ninth ta%, 11tgh scr%, 18th sck%), which is a critically vital ability for a cell QB.
• As a result of he’s sensible below strain, he will get a rating enhance in total internet yardage. I imply twenty fourth ny/d isn’t good, but it surely’s higher than twenty ninth ypa.
• In fact, with low yardage, it’s robust to get first downs or TDs (twenty seventh 1st%, twenty eighth TD). As beforehand acknowledged, his operating TD doesn’t present up in these passing stats, so in order for you mentally add that, be happy. It doesn’t actually change the story.
• His turnover price was once more dangerous as has been the case for many of the season (ninth to). FYI, that doesn’t embrace Pittman’s fumble (not on QB) nor the pick-6 flea flicker (run play and never his fault anyway).

He finishes twenty eighth in each EPA per dropback and Passing Success Fee, which is on par together with his season numbers (twenty eighth, thirtieth). Clearly that’s not perfect, however at the start of the yr, I stated all I wished AR to do was 2 issues: have respectable accuracy (cpoe) and never abandon move performs (aa%). To this point, he’s 1 for two.

He has horrible accuracy (thirty second cpoe) and I’m a bit of involved as to if that’s fixable. I do know Josh Allen had that drawback and obtained higher after a yr, however then once more, Tim Tebow didn’t. I suppose I’m saying that Josh Allen is extra the exception than the rule. AR doesn’t must be nice and even common at finishing throws, however he positively has to get higher to succeed.

So far as deserted performs, he’s doing nice. He’s pressured on 39.3% of his dropbacks (4th highest), however he solely abandons 15.2% of these performs (sixteenth lowest). And when he abandons them, he avoids sacks (twenty seventh sck%). That is superb information because it describes a QB who stays within the pocket and retains his eyes downfield, however nonetheless makes good choices when issues go south. If he can merely join on just a few extra passes, then he could possibly be superb.